Table of Contents
Preface: Have Baseball Card Values Risen in 20-25 Years? Actually…
Introduction
Notes on Beckett Pricings, eBay/Terapeak Data, and BGS vs. PSA
Part I: The Value of Scarcity
· The 1909-11 T206 Honus Wagner
· Modern Sports Cards
· Absolute Scarcity and Relative Scarcity
· Relative Scarcity and Pricing Power
· Leverage
Part II: Key Cards and Multiple Expansion
· Key Cards
· The Points of the Exercise
Part III: Prospect-RC Structures (2006-Present)
· Mike Trout
· David Price
· Stephen Strasburg
· Bryce Harper
· Yu Darvish
· Key Observations
· Relative Valuation: Rarer Parallels and Printing Plates
Part IV: The Baseball Prospecting Game
· The Prospect Washout Rate
· Top Prospect Bubble Behavior
· Hidden Gems
· The EV Comp Approach to Prospect Valuation
· The Plus Side
Part V: Value Investing and the Gem Mint Game
· Price vs. Value
· Appraisal: Replacement Cost and Relative Valuation
· The Greater Fool Theory and Equilibrium Collector Value
· Multiple Expansion and Relative Multiples
· Multiple Contraction
· Value Hunting
Part VI: The Supply Chain and the Value Cycle
· The Supply Chain
· The Value Cycle
· The #’d Refractor, the Auto, and the Logistics of Supply Growth
· Multiple Chromes Risk: How Topps Goes Back to the Well
· The Reverse Screw: The 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft Bryce Harper RC Auto
· Conclusions: The Impact on Card Value and Box Value
Part VII: Grade Scarcity, Card Removal, and the BGS Grading System
· The BGS Grading System
· Comparing BGS and PSA Grading Definitions
· Grade Scarcity and Multiple Expansion
· Grade Scarcity and Box Value
· The Card Removal Effect
· Card Removal: A Demonstration
Part VIII: Building Gems
· The Four Basic Types of Ungraded Strategies
· Card Types to Avoid
· Seller Tells: Types of Sellers and Sales Types to Avoid
· Higher Probability Cards: What to Look For
· Redemptions
· Card Selection: Value Plays
· Buying Strategies
· Player Case Breaks
· Case Breaks Part II: Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autos
· Submitting Cards for Grading
Part IX: Other Sports
· NFL Football
· NBA Basketball
· NHL Hockey
Closing Thoughts
Glossary