Table of Contents

Preface: Have Baseball Card Values Risen in 20-25 Years? Actually…

Introduction

Notes on Beckett Pricings, eBay/Terapeak Data, and BGS vs. PSA

Part I: The Value of Scarcity
·      The 1909-11 T206 Honus Wagner
·      Modern Sports Cards
·      Absolute Scarcity and Relative Scarcity
·      Relative Scarcity and Pricing Power
·      Leverage

Part II: Key Cards and Multiple Expansion
·      Key Cards
·      The Points of the Exercise

Part III: Prospect-RC Structures (2006-Present)
·      Mike Trout
·      David Price
·      Stephen Strasburg
·      Bryce Harper
·      Yu Darvish
·      Key Observations
·      Relative Valuation: Rarer Parallels and Printing Plates

Part IV: The Baseball Prospecting Game
·      The Prospect Washout Rate
·      Top Prospect Bubble Behavior
·      Hidden Gems
·      The EV Comp Approach to Prospect Valuation
·      The Plus Side

Part V: Value Investing and the Gem Mint Game
·      Price vs. Value
·      Appraisal: Replacement Cost and Relative Valuation
·      The Greater Fool Theory and Equilibrium Collector Value
·      Multiple Expansion and Relative Multiples
·      Multiple Contraction
·      Value Hunting

Part VI: The Supply Chain and the Value Cycle
·      The Supply Chain
·      The Value Cycle
·      The #’d Refractor, the Auto, and the Logistics of Supply Growth
·      Multiple Chromes Risk: How Topps Goes Back to the Well
·      The Reverse Screw: The 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft Bryce Harper RC Auto
·      Conclusions: The Impact on Card Value and Box Value

Part VII: Grade Scarcity, Card Removal, and the BGS Grading System
·      The BGS Grading System
·      Comparing BGS and PSA Grading Definitions
·      Grade Scarcity and Multiple Expansion
·      Grade Scarcity and Box Value
·      The Card Removal Effect
·      Card Removal: A Demonstration

Part VIII: Building Gems
·      The Four Basic Types of Ungraded Strategies
·      Card Types to Avoid
·      Seller Tells: Types of Sellers and Sales Types to Avoid
·      Higher Probability Cards: What to Look For
·      Redemptions
·      Card Selection: Value Plays
·      Buying Strategies
·      Player Case Breaks
·      Case Breaks Part II: Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autos
·      Submitting Cards for Grading

Part IX: Other Sports
·      NFL Football
·      NBA Basketball
·      NHL Hockey
 
Closing Thoughts

Glossary